20121003

競選辯論這回事

剛看完美國總統選舉的第一場辯論,連我這個 Romney hater 也不得不承認,這次辯論 Romney 明顯嬴了。真失望。

競選辯論的勝敗從來都不是取決於哪一方有道理、講邏輯、重事實,因為選民大部份都沒有能力在這幾方面作正確的判斷。辯論不過是演戲,作用是影響選民的印象,因此,辯論後大多數人認為勝了的一方,就是勝了,不必用其他客觀合理的標準來衡量。

要有效地影響選民的印象,講究的不外乎是動聽的修辭、令人難忘的警句、精到易明的例子、恰如其分的身體語言、和讓人感覺到的正面情感(無論真假);此外,還要做到攻不露狠、守不顯弱,否則就算講的是真理,也會令選民留下壞印象,那就是輸了。

Obama 這次的表現實在差強人意,給人的印象是只有招架之功而無還手之力,甚至有點漠然,像是在做例行工事;Romney 則詞鋒犀利,論點簡單易明,而且有幾分義正詞嚴似的激動,可以騙到不少人。以下是辯論的第一部份,大家可以看看,自行判斷:



辯論的表現不會影響雙方的「鐵票」,然而,美國選舉的所謂「游離票」不少,如果辯論表現不濟,便很可能會失去一些「游離票」,影響可大可小。Obama 在辯論前民調一直領先,但美國經濟尚未明顯好轉,失業率仍高,對 Obama 不利;還有兩場總統候選人辯論,假如 Obama 也輸了,便會大大增加他失去總統寶座的機會。希望他汲取這一次表現欠佳的教訓,下一場會重整旗鼓,大勝 Romney

25 則留言:

  1. I got home late and only watched the last one or half hour of debate, and I noticed that Obama was smirking a lot and often seemed hesitated to say sth.
    His performance was not impressive at all.

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    1. I was unable to watch the debate on TV but had listened to the live broadcast on NPR. Based on the audio delivery (without the visual) I thought it was quite boring due to both candidates throwing too much facts and figures around, and they both were being a bit too civil to each other without throwing a lot of punches. There were no specks.

      When I finally saw the debate on video my heart sunk for Romney played it well and the guy's got some slick style. In contrast, Obama looked like he's on the defensive and he looked frazzled. I have no idea what had gotten into him, Obama's usual confidence has disappeared.

      I am quite surprised that Obama did not attack his opponent's weakness and pounce on Romney's gaffes—e.g. Bain and the 47% comments.

      I agree that Obama better come back strong in the next debate. This is going to be a long 2 months before election day.

      The pundits are certainly having a field day dissecting the first debate play-by-play.

      I am afraid Jim Lehrer is now in the same camp as the NFL referee in the Packers/Seahawks game.

      -----

      For further discussing on the candidates' body language:

      www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2012/10/04/162291833/dont-confuse-us-with-facts-why-debates-are-all-about-style

      -----

      Lastly, Prof. Wong, thanks for posting about the debate and something relating to States-side politics.

      It is nice to see how your Hong Kong- based readers' reaction and reading their comments.

      -49er



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    2. NPR's Senior Washington Editor Ron Elving says: "It was the "corporate executive" (Romney) vs. the "government professor" (Obama) and the GOP nominee appeared to be "full of confidence and full of sales pitch."

      Another case of cerebral vs. showiness.

      Given how TV viewers love reality shows and QVC, sadly, Obama better come out swinging and package his braininess in a better way.

      -49er

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    3. //Lastly, Prof. Wong, thanks for posting about the debate and something relating to States-side politics.
      It is nice to see how your Hong Kong- based readers' reaction and reading their comments.//

      - No need to thank me, really. I just write about what interests me.

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  2. 開首幾分鐘羅姆尼直望鏡頭說話,狀甚誠懇親切;奧巴馬卻側臉,只用眼睛「睄」向鏡頭,給人感覺閃閃縮縮。

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    1. 我反而覺得 Obama 是誠實的人,那個 Romney 是偽善的,這些偽善的技倆有些少的聰明就能做出來 (例如我)。

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    2. 我也不過是說「狀甚」誠懇親切而已。至於他是否偽善,我就不知道。正如王Sir說,「辯論不過是演戲,作用是影響選民的印象」。

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    3. Yan,

      爬到上總統之位的,不會誠實到那裏。

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  3. 我覺得 Ron Paul 真係唔錯
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKfuS6gfxPY

    或者投 Gary Johnson http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrU6hTWyj6s

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    1. 投給 Gary Johnson,不過是 make a statement 吧了。

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  4. 我總不相信Romney能勝出.

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    1. Oh I don't know about that 蝮. There are plenty of angry and disillusioned (real and powerful emotions) people in the Swing States. Of those states, according to polls, 5 are leaning Democratic, 4 are leaning Republican, with 9 toss-ups.

      Always fascinating is those states are in Middle America.

      My opinion is the East (N.E. states, anyway) and West coasts are blue states, where the voters are generally more cosmopolitan. Cultural and political polarization between red and blue states are increasing.

      I am crossing my fingers that Romney won't win, I am not optimistic.

      -49er

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    2. 49er,

      你說的不錯.
      這些夢醒的人們只所以有幻想, 也是因為四年前奧巴馬的"變變變"口號叫得太響所致.
      但是, 今次的挑戰者真的頗為不濟(印象中真的沒多少個候選人能在選舉期間失言如此多次).
      所以我認為是他勝不了, 而不是奧巴馬能勝.
      而我總不相信能出一個犘門總統, 出女性總統大概還容易一些.

      你所說的政治地圖大概與傳統說法接近.

      說實在的, 若說財赤與公共債務問題, 有一個顯而易見的解決方法.
      與這方法比起來, 現在所提及的種種節流方法成效都差得多.
      當然, 不論是兩人之中的誰上台, 也不會用這方法.
      事實上, 如今在經濟問題上, 兩方最主要的策略都是把責任推向對方, 然後再丟出一個沒有人知道會否有效的方案.

      我估計, 奧是因為有一個不大不小的民望優勢, 所以在第一埸中採取守勢, 避免說錯話失分.
      而如今結果既然如此, 他當會在第二回合發揮一向的便給口舌, 攻擊對方.

      最後也許雙方都要準備Plan B, 集合律師團.

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    3. 我相信 Romney 仍有機會勝出,雖然勝數比 Obama 低。

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  5. 王SIR 好像講摩門教時提過Romney? 說Romney 有好能做總統,希望不會成真。。。

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  6. Well, Niall Ferguson has written a fierce critique attacking Obama's record and in particular his style of decision making, in the August issue of the Newsweek. I am not sure whether it rings any bell among the American intellectuals (notwithstanding that Ferguson certainly has a tilted opinion towards the 'drys').
    Obama certainly has problem as he has realised (I have received daily emails from his election team these days saying literally 'I need your help (to remain in office)'.
    The other telling sign is from Bill Clinton - who flirts a lot these days in a self important manner. What sorts of manipulations behind the scene - i don't know.
    I do know this President has dented his confidence a lot these days.
    I am not sure he still has the self projected faith to believe in his unfinished business - you name it, health care reform, cleaning up of the Wall Street, etc.
    For sure, many, including myself have felt disappointed, if not being let down.
    I say these not for a moment to pretend that I am an expert in American politics. Just a bit of musings from an average 'global citizen'.

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    1. Obama has disappointed many progressives, but I think he has already done a lot. No one should expect a president to magically fix everything in one term.

      This is a relevant piece: Obama's Top 50 Accomplishments

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  7. 布殊-切尼年代出現的「Energy Task Force」及後產生的汽油零售價格沒有競爭而導致高油價繼續維持的話,美國的經濟就極難好轉。
    奧巴馬無法恢復汽油零售價的自由競爭令他的經濟諾言無法實現,但Rommey恐怕更加無法恢復汽油零售價的自由競爭,會把美國更多工作職位外判,可能中國更歡迎Romney當選。

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  8. It is really amazing that a former private equity chief who insulted half of the population and so blatantly campaigning for the rich, can still have a good chance to become POTUS. The minds of the USA swing voters, a lot of them being middle class or poor, are mind boggling.

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    1. //The minds of the USA swing voters, a lot of them being middle class or poor, are mind boggling.//

      - Can't agree more.

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    2. Before we look at the swing voters, let's look at the die-hard Republican voters. We can also say that //The minds of the USA// Republican //voters, a lot of them being middle class or poor, are mind boggling.// Most of the Republican voters aren't rich either. Swing voters are better, they don't always vote for the Republican candidate. --zpdrmn

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  9. 睇下呢段片消消氣:
    http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6830834/mitt-romney-style-gangnam-style-parody

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    1. haha thanks dude! In return, here ya go:

      http://www.theonion.com/video/romney-to-travel-back-in-time-to-kill-liberal-vers,27788/

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  10. I was disappointed in Obama's performance too!
    //美國選舉的所謂「游離票」不少// I am thinking about moving to Florida. My vote in my state, a red state, won't count much. But I think I'm tied up here. --zpdrmn

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